By Smart Win Bets

The Best Live Bets for Lions vs Chiefs 2023 Kickoff: Total Points Free Predictions – Free NFL Picks and Free Computer Picks at

Hello NFL fans and bettors alike, and welcome to Smart Win Bets, your premier source for expert NFL predictions. We're thrilled to be in our first year as NFL analysts and sports analysts. Today, we'll be diving into a preview of the highly anticipated Week 1 game between the Detroit Lions and the Kansas City Chiefs. Buckle up, because we have a statistical model that has been trained since 2019 and achieved a 70% accuracy rate in the 2022 NFL season.


Detroit Lions

  • Stadium: Ford Field, known for its unique design featuring a six-story glass atrium.
  • Fun Fact: The Lions have one of the longest championship droughts in NFL history, with their last championship win being in 1957.
  • History: Their famous 'Silver Rush' defense is often cited as one of the best in NFL history.

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium, famously deafening and holding the Guinness World Record for crowd noise.
  • Fun Fact: The Chiefs were actually founded in 1960 as the Dallas Texans before moving to Kansas City.
  • History: They have two Super Bowl titles, the most recent coming in the 2019 season.

QB Matchup: Jared Goff vs Kansas City Chiefs Defense

Jared Goff faces the Kansas City Chiefs defense, known for its swift linebackers and high-pressure strategies. Can he navigate the treacherous waters or will the Chiefs stifle the Lions' offensive game plan?

Statistical Deep Dive

We use simulations and statistical approaches that are commonly accepted in financial risk management. This ensures every single NFL pick we provide considers the lowest risk of failing and the highest probability of minimizing the difference between the projections and real results.

Detailed Analysis

After a meticulous process of statistical analysis involving different sample sizes, including 32 games, 17 games, and 8 games of historical data for each team, we've got some intriguing insights to share.


After running more than a million simulations, we found that 95% of the time, the minimum expected points scored in this game was 38 points. Therefore, if for any reason the Las Vegas NFL odds start looking attractive for your risk aversion, you can consider that in 950,000 simulated games the final score estimates an OVER 38 FOR THIS GAME.

Betting Strategy

Based on our free NFL tips and nfl computer predictions, we recommend taking note of this for your NFL betting strategy. This game is one of the NFL lock picks for the over based on our statistical model.

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