By Smart Win Bets

The Best Live Bets for Ravens vs Texans 2023 NFL Week 1: Total Points Free Predictions – Free NFL Picks and Free Computer Picks at

Welcome back to Smart Win Bets, where we apply the rigor of financial risk management to the world of NFL betting. We’re ecstatic to kick off our first year as NFL analysts with a model that has been in the works since 2019 and hit a 70% accuracy rate in last year's 2022 NFL season. Let's dive into an enticing Week 1 matchup between the Houston Texans and the Baltimore Ravens!


Houston Texans

  • Stadium: NRG Stadium, home to the first retractable-roof stadium in the NFL.
  • Fun Fact: Despite being one of the youngest teams in the NFL, founded in 2002, the Texans have already clinched six division championships.
  • History: The Texans are still on the hunt for their first Super Bowl appearance.

Baltimore Ravens

  • Stadium: M&T Bank Stadium, known for its close proximity to the field, giving fans an intimate viewing experience.
  • Fun Fact: The Ravens are named after Edgar Allan Poe’s famous poem "The Raven," as Poe lived in Baltimore.
  • History: The Ravens are two-time Super Bowl champions, last winning it in the 2012 season.

QB Matchup: Lamar Jackson vs Houston Texans Defense

Lamar Jackson, known for his dazzling playmaking abilities both on the ground and in the air, faces a Texans defense that has struggled in recent seasons. Will this be that kind of game that QB Lamar Jackson utilize his secret weapon... Justin Tucker, to seal the deal?

Statistical Deep Dive

Our statistical model, designed around methodologies commonly used in financial risk management, runs 1 million simulations to provide you with picks that minimize risk and narrow down the gap between projected and actual results.

Detailed Analysis

Based on sample sizes of 32, 17, and 8 games of historical data for each team, we executed an extensive set of statistical analyses.


After over a million simulations, we found that 95% of the time, the minimum expected points scored in this game was 26 points. So, if the Las Vegas nfl odds have you thinking, consider this: in 950,000 simulated games, the final score estimates an OVER 26 FOR THIS GAME.

Betting Strategy

Based on our computer picks and expert nfl predictions, this game is one you should pay attention to for your NFL betting strategy. Keep an eye out for NFL over under bets, as this game leans toward an over, based on our model.

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